Prévision
7 articles
Prévision de séries temporelles, modèles probabilistes et planification de la demande. Des lancements de produits à la modélisation des risques supply chain.
Modeling Attributes, Not Products: Feature Engineering for Luxury Demand
What it actually takes to build a production forecasting system for luxury demand at SKU level: decomposing products into shared attributes, designing hierarchical aggregate features without leakage, handling intermittency with Tweedie and hurdle objectives, and forecasting in a way finance can use.
Forecasting Luxury Demand at SKU Level
A field perspective on hierarchical forecasting in luxury retail — where ultra-premium SKUs sell fewer than 100 units a year and finance cannot ignore them.
Designing a Markdown Optimization Engine with States
Markdown planning explodes when weeks, events, discount levels, and phases are modeled as separate dimensions. Collapsing each week into a single state turns it into a clean optimization problem.
For Markdown modeling, predict sell-through rate and not sales volume
Sales volume mixes demand and inventory effects. Sell-through rate captures what actually matters: how fast inventory clears under pricing and context constraints.
Demand Planning des nouveaux produits : le plus grand angle mort du forecasting
Pourquoi le forecast de lancement produit est souvent un exercice politique plus qu'une estimation robuste, et comment le transformer en système probabiliste et explicable.
Probabilistic Forecasting in Travel Retail - Part 2: Gradient Boosting Quantile Regression
Deep dive into gradient boosting trees with quantile regression for robust uncertainty estimation in travel retail forecasting.
Probabilistic Forecasting in Travel Retail - Part 1: Foundations
How to build robust forecasting models that account for uncertainty, seasonality, and external shocks in the travel retail sector.