Forecasting

Probabilistic Forecasting in Travel Retail - Part 2: Gradient Boosting Quantile Regression

Deep dive into gradient boosting trees with quantile regression for robust uncertainty estimation in travel retail forecasting.

Cyril Noirot

September 15, 2025

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10 min read

In Part 1, we explored probabilistic forecasting using Prophet and Bayesian methods.

Now we move to a more operationally robust approach: gradient boosting trees with quantile regression.

This is where probabilistic forecasting stops being mostly a modeling discussion and becomes a systems discussion.

Travel retail is exactly the kind of environment where simpler structural assumptions start to break:

About the author

Cyril Noirot

Lead Data Scientist

Freelance data scientist. I design and ship decision systems — forecasting, pricing, marketing measurement, optimization.

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