Forecasting

4 articles

Time series forecasting, probabilistic models, and demand planning. From new product launches to supply chain risk modeling.

6 min

For Markdown modeling, predict sell-through rate and not sales volume

Sales volume mixes demand and inventory effects. Sell-through rate captures what actually matters: how fast inventory clears under pricing and context constraints.

Mar 17

5 min

Demand Planning des nouveaux produits : le plus grand angle mort du forecasting

Pourquoi le forecast de lancement produit est souvent un exercice politique plus qu'une estimation robuste, et comment le transformer en système probabiliste et explicable.

Jan 26

10 min

Probabilistic Forecasting in Travel Retail - Part 2: Gradient Boosting Quantile Regression

Deep dive into gradient boosting trees with quantile regression for robust uncertainty estimation in travel retail forecasting.

Sep 15

6 min

Probabilistic Forecasting in Travel Retail - Part 1: Foundations

How to build robust forecasting models that account for uncertainty, seasonality, and external shocks in the travel retail sector.

Sep 1