Exploring structural causal models using DAGs, counterfactual reasoning, and frameworks like DoWhy and PyMC-Marketing
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Lead Data Scientist
Freelance data scientist. I design and ship decision systems — forecasting, pricing, marketing measurement, optimization — for teams making high-stakes calls.
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Two initiatives can show the same ROI and still deserve very different decisions. The missing variable is time-to-ROI: how fast the initial investment is recovered.
Most CRM organizations don't have a feedback loop. They have a broadcasting system. The shift from propensity to uplift modeling changes everything.
Revenue is a derived quantity. Marketing influences demand, units sold, not price. Modeling revenue directly entangles two mechanisms and produces misleading attribution.
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