Forecasting5 min read

Demand Planning des nouveaux produits : le plus grand angle mort du forecasting

Pourquoi le forecast de lancement produit est souvent un exercice politique plus qu'une estimation robuste, et comment le transformer en système probabiliste et explicable.

Cyril Noirot

Lead Data Scientist

January 26, 2026

About the author

Cyril Noirot

Lead Data Scientist

Freelance data scientist. I design and ship decision systems — forecasting, pricing, marketing measurement, optimization — for teams making high-stakes calls.

For Markdown modeling, predict sell-through rate and not sales volume

Sales volume mixes demand and inventory effects. Sell-through rate captures what actually matters: how fast inventory clears under pricing and context constraints.

Forecasting10 min

Probabilistic Forecasting in Travel Retail - Part 2: Gradient Boosting Quantile Regression

Deep dive into gradient boosting trees with quantile regression for robust uncertainty estimation in travel retail forecasting.

Forecasting6 min

Probabilistic Forecasting in Travel Retail - Part 1: Foundations

How to build robust forecasting models that account for uncertainty, seasonality, and external shocks in the travel retail sector.

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