Forecasting

Demand Planning des nouveaux produits : le plus grand angle mort du forecasting

Pourquoi le forecast de lancement produit est souvent un exercice politique plus qu'une estimation robuste, et comment le transformer en système probabiliste et explicable.

Cyril Noirot

January 26, 2026

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5 min read

Dans beaucoup d'entreprises, le forecast des lancements produits est encore traité comme un exercice analytique.

- pas de données passées - un comportement client encore inconnu - une cannibalisation non mesurable - une dépendance forte au marketing et à la distribution

- "c'est un produit similaire" - "c'est la même catégorie" - "on a un benchmark interne"

- le prix change - la distribution change - la concurrence change - la marque évolue - le canal n'est pas le même

About the author

Cyril Noirot

Lead Data Scientist

Freelance data scientist. I design and ship decision systems — forecasting, pricing, marketing measurement, optimization.

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