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FeaturedProbabilistic Forecasting in Travel Retail - Part 2: Gradient Boosting Quantile Regression
Deep dive into gradient boosting trees with quantile regression for robust uncertainty estimation in travel retail forecasting.
Forecasting
Probabilistic forecasting and time series analysis for strategic planning
Modern forecasting goes beyond simple trend extrapolation. We implement probabilistic models that quantify uncertainty, capture complex patterns, and enable scenario planning for better decision-making.
Core Capabilities
Demand Forecasting
Hierarchical models, seasonality decomposition, and external factor integration
Revenue Prediction
Multi-product forecasting, price elasticity modeling, and growth scenarios
Probabilistic Forecasting
Uncertainty quantification, prediction intervals, and risk assessment
Scenario Planning
What-if analysis, stress testing, and contingency planning
Real-time Forecasting
Automated model updates, anomaly detection, and early warning systems
Business Impact
- 40-60% reduction in forecast error
- Improved inventory and supply chain efficiency
- Better resource allocation and capacity planning
- Risk-adjusted decision making
- Automated forecasting processes
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